Stock markets will be driven by inflation data, trade-related news, earnings and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said on Sunday. Global market trends will also influence trading sentiment this week, they added.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Trent, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Eternal, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the gainers. On the other hand, Tata Steel, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and PowerGrid were the laggards.
The government bond yield curve is likely to flatten in the financial year 2027 (FY27) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to ease supply pressure in the ultra-long segment. In FY26 so far, reduced investments by insurance companies and pension funds pushed up yields on ultra-long tenor securities, steepening the curve.
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Government divestment reached record figures after the financial crisis, at the same time as promoters were required to bring down their stake in companies to 75 per cent or less.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
Over 50 per cent, or 660 stocks, from the BSE 1000 index recorded negative returns during CY25.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
The markets need not tank every time the rupee depreciates sustainably over months.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
Among Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra declined. Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Infosys, HCL Tech, IndusInd Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
India received FDI equity flows from China worth $2.67 million in FY25, which was 0.01 per cent of the total FDI equity receipts by India in FY25.
Equity markets this week would keenly track the upcoming GST Council meeting, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors for further movement, analysts said. Moreover, developments related to tariff negotiations, global market trends and auto sales data would also drive investors' sentiment.
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) , the country's largest domestic institutional investor (DII), has seen a Rs 46,000 crore erosion in the value of its equity holdings amid market downturns in July. The benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, have slipped 2.6 per cent from their June 2025-end level to 24,837 and 81,463.09 respectively.
New investor additions by mutual funds (MFs) have slowed dramatically in recent months, indicating that market correction and a rise in volatility are somewhat dimming the appeal of equity schemes. MFs have onboarded 300,000 new investors in April 2025, the lowest in 22 months.
The Indian banking sector could be due for a rise in profitability after several quarters of net interest margin (NIM) compression. The Q2FY26 results suggest NIMs have bottomed out.
Indian equity benchmarks rose nearly 2 per cent on Thursday, capping a truncated trading week with their strongest weekly performance in over four years. The rally was sparked by renewed risk-on sentiment following progress in trade negotiations and expanded tariff exemptions.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics rose the most by 4.26 per cent. HCL Tech gained 2.57 per cent, Bajaj Finance by 2.19 per cent, TCS by 1.99 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.88 per cent and Infosys by 1.85 per cent. Gains in Axis Bank and State Bank of India also supported the rally. However, Mahindra & Mahindra emerged as the biggest loser, falling by 2.47 per cent. Maruti dropped 1.53 per cent and Tata Motors by nearly 1 per cent due to profit-taking. UltraTech, Eternal and Power Grid were also among the laggards.
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Nestle and Tata Steel were among the major laggards. In contrast, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel and Maruti were among the gainers.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
From the Sensex firms, Infosys climbed 3.86 per cent. HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and Tech Mahindra were also among the gainers. However, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, Bharti Airtel and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, Tech Mahindra and Eternal were major laggards. However, Maruti, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Trent and Tata Consultancy Services were among the gainers.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree and poured close to Rs 4,800 crore in the Indian equity markets in the first week of January driven by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals. Additionally, they injected Rs 4,000 crore in the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. With expectations of a prolonged decline in US interest rates in 2024, there is an anticipation that FPIs will likely escalate their purchase, particularly in the initial months of the New Year leading up to the general elections, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
Noting that recent uncertainties created by global tariffs have not impacted the Indian economy severely, Anuradha Thakur, secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, said the central government is hopeful that the recent goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation will ignite the much needed animal spirits in the financial sector.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip ICICI Bank. Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 148.14 points or 0.18 per cent to settle at 83,311.01.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity cooled in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), with deal value falling to $26.26 billion from $29.04 billion a year ago, according to Bloomberg data.
Equity mutual funds witnessed a remarkable surge in inflows to nearly Rs 4 lakh crore in 2024, more than double the amount recorded in the preceding year, reflecting strong investor confidence and a continued shift towards long-term investing, particularly through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs).
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
While gold continues to provide safety after its strong 2025 rally, well-chosen real estate investments held with a long-term view remain attractive.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
Top Indian cement firms are expected to report a strong earnings growth for the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Q2FY26) on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, amid improved realisations, prices, and steady volume growth, but on a low base.
From the Sensex firms, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and ITC were among the gainers. However, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Maruti and Eternal were among the laggards.
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell on Friday, extending their downward journey to the third day, as investors continued to reel under pressure caused by the imposition of high tariffs and relentless foreign fund outflows.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
